The Transformative Planning by Scenarios approach is a creative and constructive way for actors from different areas and sectors to co-create shared histories regarding possible futures. This is one way to overcome complex and polarized situations.

Scenarios are stories about what could happen with Bogotá in the future, and the key is the word “could”. This is not about predicting what is going to happen with the city, because there is no single scenario, and it is not what we want to happen either. They are not plans, aspirations or proposals - they are possibilities. Building scenarios is an exercise that involves detaching oneself from desires and responses, and looking beyond forecasts and projections. The idea is much simpler: identifying possible futures of Bogotá in which the different visions of society converge.

The scenarios of Bogotá 2025 were created by a team of people from the most diverse sectors: entrepreneurs, public sector, social organizations, the media, multilateral agencies, young people and universities. In short, we have a microcosm of Bogotá’s society represented on the scenarios team.

The crab walk

Bogotá may walk into the future like crabs do. Crabs move sideways, they are slow and clumsy, and they also have their claws ready to defend themselves. This scenario represents the conflict of interest between the different sectors of society and the lack of agreements, particularly considering long-term issues.

The idea is that, if everyone goes their own way, no one will meet their own objectives because each person will be obstructing the actions of others. That is why indifference and skepticism are the main characteristics of the city's erratic trajectory, taking steps forward and steps back.

So, for instance, the right infrastructure for public transportation is not built, traffic becomes even worse, as does pollution, etc. That does not mean that it will all be bad. We will continue to grow and very positive things will continue to occur, such as Bogotá’s central role in the Latin American cultural context.

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Escenarios Bogotá 2025

Flight of the geese

Bogotá may fly into the future like geese do. This scenario represents the possibility of going in the same direction, but alternating leadership. The goose at the front of the formation is the one that must struggle against the wind and, over time, gets tired. However, this is not a major issue because another goose takes over and the formation is preserved.

In more concrete terms, what this metaphor means is the possibility of having a plural leadership that would be in the hands of the different sectors of society. In other words, if the widespread deception with the political directions continues, new forms of leadership may emerge that will empower citizens to take large-scale collective actions. This is thanks to the new technological alternatives in the fields of education, mobility and economy, among others.

Of course, tension will arise in the process, but in the end, the idea of this scenario is that the city's destination does not depend exclusively on the political power or that of traditional institutions.

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Escenarios Bogotá 2025

Beehive

Bogotá may work like a beehive. Bees are social animals and they work together in a very organized manner. This scenario is characterized by institutional leadership and the coordinated effort of all sectors of society.

The idea is that, amidst the skepticism and the desire for a better city, institutional leaders may arise, abandoning the vices of traditional politics and gradually recovering people’s confidence in the public sector and giving rise to greater commitment on the part of inhabitants. In this scenario, there are three basic premises: that continuity between the different governments is indispensable, that inequity is the major problem of our time and that it is necessary to engage citizens in building the future of the city, because political power by itself is not enough. The beehive works because each member plays a role for the common good.

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Escenarios Bogotá 2025

Scenarios team

Adriana Gutiérrez Directora Competitividad Bogotá Región Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico	Alberto Merlano Gerente Empresa de Acueducto, Alcantarillado y Aseo de Bogotá ESP
Aura Amelia Abril Directora Fundamujer	Carlos Enrique Moreno Presidente Organización Corona
Consuelo Corredor Investigadora y experta en temas de Equidad	Diana Avella Directora Colectivo Distrital de Mujeres Hip Hop
Diana Avella Directora Colectivo Distrital de Mujeres Hip Hop	Edgar Cataño Director Nacional de Programa ONU – Hábitat Colombia
Eduardo Pizano de Narváez Presidente Naturgas	Eduardo Villar Borrero Presidente Fundación Social
Ernesto Cortés Editor Jefe El Tiempo	Francisco Manrique Presidente Consejo Directivo Connect Bogotá Región
Gerardo Ardila Calderón Secretario de Planeación Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá	Germán Sarmiento Director Cebras por la Vida
Héctor Hugo Álvarez Director Ecobarrios	Jaime Bueno Miranda Alto Consejero Presidencial para la Competitividad y Proyectos Estratégicos Presidencia de la República
Jeyffer Rentería, Don Popo Director Fundación Familia Ayara	Johanna Mahuth Tafur Directora Oficina de Sueños
Jorge Mario Díaz Vicepresidente de Gobernanza Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá	José Fernando Isaza Miembro Consejo Directivo Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Juan Carlos Ramírez Director Oficina de la CEPAL Bogotá	Juan David Ángel Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá
Leonidas López Rector Universidad Minuto de Dios	Luis Guillermo Plata Director ProBogotá
Susana Muhamad González Secretaria de Ambiente Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá	Martha Lucía Zamora Secretaria General Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá
Nohra Padilla Directora Organización de Recicladores	Paola Portilla Coordinadora General Todos por la Educación
Paul Bromberg Experto Gobierno y Desarrollo Urbano	Ramiro Osorio Director Teatro Mayor Julio Mario Santo Domingo
Ricardo Bonilla Secretario de Hacienda Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá	Ricardo Enrique Díaz Gerente Ladrillera Helios S.A.
Soraya Montoya Directora Fundación Saldarriaga Concha	Ximena Tapias Presidente Coalición Colombiana de Industrias Creativas y de Contenidos

People interviewed

Alberto Velásquez Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá	Álvaro Cruz Vargas Gobernador Gobernación de Cundinamarca
Ángela Escallón Emiliani Directora Fundación Corona	Angelino Garzón Exvicepresidente Presidencia de la República
Antonio Navarro Wolff Senador Senado de la República	Carlos Andrés Daza Bernal Alcalde Alcaldía de Fusagasugá
Enrique Peñalosa Londoño Exalcalde Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá	Francisco Durán Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá
Hollman Felipe Morris Rincón Exgerente Canal Capital	Jaime Mantilla Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá
Jaime Ortiz Mariño Expresidente Sociedad de Mejoras y Ornato Bogotá	Jorge Enrique Acevedo Bohórquez Director Instituto Ser de Investigación
Jorge Riaño Director Casa de la Cultura Hunza – Suba	José Antonio Vargas Lleras Presidente Codensa
José Alejandro Cortés Presidente Grupo Bolívar	José Blackburn Cortés Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá
Juan Diego Trujillo Miembro Junta Directiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá	Juan Esteban Orrego Calle Director Fenalco Bogotá
Luis Fernando Andrade Moreno Director Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura	Marco Tulio Sánchez Gómez Alcalde Alcaldía de Zipaquirá
Martha Cecilia Moreno Mesa Gerente Regional Camacol Bogotá y Cundinamarca	Mariana Ríos Naranjo Líder estudiantil Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Mauricio Reina Echeverri Investigador Fedesarrollo	Mónica de Greiff  Presidenta ejecutiva Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá
Óscar Sánchez Jaramillo Secretario de Educación Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá	Rosario Córdoba Presidente Consejo Privado de Competitividad